Adam Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. International

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Last quote by Adam Jonas

We update our model with increased Model 3 unit forecasts, improved revenue and gross margin in energy, storage, and other, and (much) higher capex spend following earnings.feedback
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Aug 14 2017 Tesla
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Adam Jonas is associated, including Tesla, AMG, and depreciation. Most recently, Adam Jonas has been quoted saying: “Tesla remains a rather expensive call option on disrupting transport and energy but will (and should) attract serious competition over time – the stock is trading just over our assessment of fair value.” in the article Tesla to soar nearly 50 percent if everything goes right: Morgan Stanley.
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Adam Jonas quotes

Jun 01 2017

GT's business is powertrain-agnostic, has low obsolescence risk, is not exposed to used car prices, and can benefit from shared and automated driving. We have high conviction that [shared transportation] mobility is a deflationary business that produces an unprecedented growth in vehicle miles traveled. Unless and until flying cars take significant share from terrestrial cars, we see this miles megatrend as a secular tail wind for tire companies.feedback

Jun 01 2017

Our recent meeting with Goodyear senior management in Akron [Ohio] revealed a high sense of awareness ... of the profound technological and business model changes impacting the global mobility market. The technological revolution in mobility may drive growth in miles traveled at 2x historic levels, supporting tire volume and pricing. Longer term we see a scenario where GT becomes a transport services firm with less cyclical revenue.feedback

May 30 2017

Our simulations, have suggested that replacing a human driver ($50k per year) with an autonomous car (<$5k of equipment up front) can yield payback periods as little as 5 or 6 weeks!feedback

May 25 2017 - United Airlines passenger removal

Shared and automated transport also unlocks the more than 600bn hours of driver and passenger time currently spent in vehicles (equal to 68 million years annually), by itself representing an economic opportunity for content and data worth potentially trillions of dollars.feedback

May 23 2017 - Driverless cars

If we assume that Waymo can grow to ~1% of global miles driven by 2030 (based on a fleet of ~3mn cars each driving ~65k miles/year) and that Waymo can generate on average ~$1.25 in revenue per mile driven, it implies a ~$70bn Waymo enterprise value. More miles/year and revenue/mile could lead to an enterprise value of ~$140bn.feedback

May 15 2017 - Driverless cars

There have been numerous developments that suggest to us the continued preparation of an assault by large tech firms on the market for shared, autonomous, electric mobility.feedback

May 15 2017 - Tesla

The bull case on Tesla is that it can become the next Amazon or Apple. We see such firms as competitors ultimately. We question whether the risks of going head-to-head vs. the tech giants is sufficiently discounted in the price. We expect much larger and more well capitalized competitors to unveil strategies that directly address sustainable transport and mobility.feedback

Apr 28 2017 - Tesla

We are not convinced that the shareholders of typical auto companies will reward those firms for deploying capital to develop technologies and business models that may be diametrically opposed to their prevailing and profitable businesses.feedback

Apr 03 2017 - Tesla

In our opinion, Tesla may be downplaying the role of the all-new hardware architecture of the Model 3 in terms of improved occupant and pedestrian safety to avoid cannibalization of demand of the other models (i.e. S and X) that do not have the new hardware architecture.feedback

Mar 27 2017 - Tesla

We think that Tesla is morphing into more of a transportation company using vehicle machines sold today as a funding strategy to become something much much bigger, not tapping into hundreds of thousands or millions of cars, but more billions, hundreds of billions of miles.feedback

Mar 27 2017 - Tesla

Well, we think the electric cars for private use really are ... for human driving pleasure for wealthier individuals. That's why it's so important that in the shared model where you're not driving 10,000 miles a year, but 50 or 100 in a fleet operation, then the economics of electrification you can get that pay back period under three years. That's the game changer – shared.feedback

Mar 27 2017 - Tesla

Tesla's cars can get better because they can learn. They put in that equipment so that the vehicle five years from now is much more superhuman and much better than the one that is just learning and watching right now.feedback

Mar 27 2017 - Tesla

Vehicle safety is even getting more attention in social media and from regulators because of the spikes in fatalities, up over 20 percent in this country over the past two years. It seems like the only thing progressing faster than the pace of machine learning is the pace of human unlearning. We're getting dumber faster than the cars are getting smarter.feedback

Mar 23 2017 - EPA

Of all the things that are likely to drive fuel economy, I would rank the EPA a distant third on the list, behind consumer preferences and the direction of technology.feedback

Mar 23 2017

We think the Model 3 will feature hardware and software that provide a level of active safety that could significantly lead all other cars on sale today and could, if the company achieves its goal, be an order of magnitude (i.e. 10x) safer than the average car on the road. According to nearly every OEM we talk to, safety is the number 1 determinant of car purchases. Look for safety to be the 'ah-hah!' moment for this car due to launch this year.feedback

Mar 15 2017 - Mobileye Intel

Tech firms are hunting for ever more data. Miles = data.feedback

Mar 08 2017 - Tesla

At this time, we ascribe zero value to Tesla shares from this business. We take this view due to the uncertain economic and regulatory forces facing the energy business, particularly the solar business.feedback

Feb 23 2017 - Tesla

We're about to find out where this invested capital is going.feedback

Feb 01 2017 - Mobileye Intel

We see the ADAS [advanced driver assistance systems] market growing faster than consensus anticipates, but we also see a more rapid commoditization of the enabling tech and sensitivities around data sharing. We lower our [price target] … on higher R&D costs, lower share and greater competition.feedback

Feb 01 2017

Amongst all major global auto manufacturers, FCA is the closest thing to a pure play on the U.S. light truck/SUV market. They were also inarguably in the most vulnerable position with respect to fuel economy standards which may have a more relaxed cadence/target level under the new administration.feedback

Jan 27 2017 - Tesla

You don't have to be anti-electric to be pro-fossil fuel.feedback

Jan 27 2017 - Tesla

To the extent the new administration prioritizes the creation of valuable, innovative high tech and manufacturing jobs, Tesla stands at the epicenter of that. That Trump would be relying on Musk as an adviser has come as quite a surprise to many people. I don't know what kind of multiplier you put on that, but it's a significant boost to the economy.feedback

Jan 19 2017 - Tesla

The market is moving Tesla's way on EVs.feedback

Jun 07 2016 - Uber

Today the largest cost for ride-sharing services like Uber is the salary of the driver, followed by vehicle depreciation. Controlling the economics of depreciation mandates that such companies get closer to the used-car transaction.feedback

Mar 31 2016 - Tesla

We expect the Model 3 to live up to the Tesla brand image as a 'no compromise' high-performance car, with a high degree of driving pleasure. We would be very surprised if the performance specs, such as acceleration and handling, are not on par with or superior to high-performance 'M' or 'AMG' versions of the equivalent German premium sedans.feedback

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