Chris Rupkey - MUFG Union Bank


Last quote by Chris Rupkey

We think current economic conditions are heavily impacted by the effect of the recent hurricanes. The Fed will rightly look over any soft patch for economic growth in the third
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Sep 29 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Chris Rupkey is associated, including Federal Reserve, September, and economy. Most recently, Chris Rupkey has been quoted saying: “When you negotiate with countries keep in mind you are really going up against some of the biggest corporations in America who moved their operations overseas years ago. This deficit concern is somewhat misguided as it is largely a trade war with ourselves. These jobs are not coming back to America's heartland.” in the article U.S. services sector growth accelerates; trade deficit edges up.
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Chris Rupkey quotes

May 12 2017

Truth be told it was all weakness in auto sales. Consumers stopped visiting car lots in the first quarter because other retail sales were quite

May 12 2017

PCE inflation isn't due out until later this month on May 30, and it tends [to] be almost a half-percentage point under the inflation rate measured by the CPI survey of prices. Core PCE inflation was 1.6 percent year to year in March and core CPI inflation was 2.0 percent

May 11 2017

Inflation is back, but it's not back in a big way. It's back in PPI. We'll see if it transfers to CPI. There's a strange decline in March month-to-month in both PCE core inflation and CPI core inflation. It's not totally explained. Hopefully, it's a one off

May 11 2017 - Unemployment

It's good current inflation came back from last month. That's one factor that makes it more likely we're going to get a June rate hike…With the unemployment rate down below full employment levels, inflation has nowhere to go but

Apr 18 2017

The economy seems to have hit a soft patch in the first quarter and Fed officials are likely to wait to see the rebound before raising rates again. The clouds from the outlook skies may not lift until late this

Apr 11 2017

It shows you that there is one of the most gigantic skills mismatches out there across the country that we have ever seen in

Feb 22 2017

I think the the one big story for us is the cross-border [adjusted] tax, which just makes a lot of Republicans cross, and is that dead on arrival or not? Is it going to be part of tax reform?feedback

Feb 03 2017

Time will tell if Trump can keep the economy's winning streak alive. It's not going to be easy to bring back those manufacturing jobs lost since the late '

Jan 31 2017 - Trump administration

The Trump rally effect on consumer's hearts and minds is starting to fade as it is apparent this administration will face a rocky road if it does not tone down its harsh rhetoric. The longer it takes the Trump administration to come out with specific proposals and programs to make America great again, consumers will continue to stay

Jan 30 2017

Not a lot is happening. The only thing is maybe Trump affected them a little. It was interesting to see the dove of the doves [Fed Gov. Lael] Brainard saying if fiscal policy works it could cause to them to speed up their rate

Jan 06 2017

The pool is all but drained especially for skilled workers. We can't bring factory jobs back because there's no one out there to run

Dec 18 2016

The federal funds rate should be brought up to normal at a steady

Nov 30 2016

It's certainly better. Consumer confidence was quite high. It's back to where it was in 2007, before the crash of the recession. I'm a little surprised that [people thought] Trump was going to bankrupt the nation with his tax cut and call a halt to America's trade with the rest of the world and cause another recession, and now we're on to 3 to 4 percent growth. It's funny how all the naysayers have kind of

Nov 30 2016

Maybe this is what the economy looks like at full employment and we didn't know it. The amazing thing to me is Trump is trying to stimulate the economy and we're at full employment. Nobody has ever tried to stimulate the economy with employment rate this

Nov 30 2016

It's building. It was building before Trump won. That's the odd thing that can't be reconciled. All the uncertainty factors, the presidential election has been on peoples' radar as a risk for the economy since spring and instead the economy's got a lot of momentum behind it, including big increases in personal income and wage and salary

Nov 25 2016 - Unemployment

The jobless claims are suggesting the labor market is going to get a second

Nov 09 2016

Health care and financial company stocks will lead the

Nov 07 2016

GDP was always the be-all, end-all, especially for us as economists, but if you look at the Fed forecasts, they're … 2.0 [percent growth] … all the way out to

Oct 25 2016

I think they would say 'next meeting.' When you have somebody like [Charles] Evans from Chicago saying he's OK with December, it sounds pretty much like it's a done deal, save the stock market falling a thousand

Oct 12 2016 - Federal Reserve

The meeting minutes make plain that the case for a rate hike was a close call and it looks like the only way (Federal Reserve Chair Janet) Yellen could hold down the get-going voices of the hawks was to promise them a rate hike later this year. At this point there would have to be some very weak economic data for the Fed not to raise rates in

Sep 20 2016 - Federal Reserve

I think the Fed has to get over its fear of what the markets are going to do. It should certainly get over any fear of unleashing a new taper

Sep 20 2016 - Federal Reserve

I think people are hiding behind the fact that futures markets have 20 percent odds of a move, and the Fed would not go against that, but my reading is that's not relevant in this case because the market's never going to give them a green light. The longer the Fed goes on, the market is going to do what it

Sep 20 2016 - Federal Reserve

The market itself is not right now, and it probably needs a wake-up call by the

Sep 15 2016

If GDP is close to 3 percent this quarter it will only be due to a one-off jump in inventories rebuild that does nothing for the growth outlook in future

Sep 15 2016

The economy is

Sep 09 2016

The trend towards an increase of inventories at the wholesale level gives us greater confidence that GDP growth will be well above 2 percent in the third quarter as factories restart their engines and start to produce the goods to replenish the store

Sep 08 2016

Rates are a long way from normal levels and the Fed has no firepower to come to the aid of the economy if a recession were to

Sep 08 2016

The labor market has not been this good since the 1970s. The Fed has operational

Sep 07 2016

There are millions of jobs going begging right now in what has got to be one of the biggest mismatches between skills and lack of qualified help available in the nation's history. The economy seems strong enough to weather a rate

Aug 30 2016

We advise Fed officials to throw their caution to the wind just like the American consumer is. It is time for Fed officials to get back on track and move rates up at a gradual

Aug 24 2016 - Federal Reserve

It's a message. Still, the most powerful person on the Fed is Yellen. She's turned them back before. I'm hoping that she's going to signal that September is a live meeting, a little more

Aug 02 2016

I think more people are getting more worried about what the presidential election will do. I don't count that out as a major risk factor. It could make Brexit look like peanuts in terms of the financial market

Aug 01 2016

I think they're struggling to come out and explain why the market has one or two rate hikes, and they have six or seven rate hikes over the next couple of years. They keep hitting back and saying the market is complacent. … he kind of talked out of both sides of his

Aug 01 2016

To me the GDP data didn't look that good. It's close to 1 percent for three straight quarters. That fits with [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen's idea that rates are going to stay lower for

Jun 24 2016

Business investment is slowing and this makes us question the outlook going forward. What do companies see that we don't?feedback

Jun 06 2016

She did not address the timing of the Fed's next gradual move which suggests to us that she is in no hurry. We are telling clients to take the summer off. See all of you Fed watchers in

Jun 03 2016

Is the paltry 38K gain real? Well we hope not. We were thinking the speed would be 150-170K on average for this point

May 24 2016 - Federal Reserve

Consumers are taking the leap and buying the biggest of big ticket items of their lives and this speaks to confidence. The Federal Reserve can raise rates at their June meeting without fear the economy is going to

May 18 2016

They are sending the clueless market a clue, make no mistake about it. A rate hike in June. Bet on

Apr 27 2016

I don't think they're going to tip their hand on the policy section of it. I think the hawkishness might come in their description of the economy, because credit spreads have come back and are no longer a worry. The stock market is no longer down 10 percent on the year. Even the G-20 was less concerned about the economic outlook for the

Apr 27 2016

It could be as much as them stepping over the weakness in the first quarter and making it out to be

Apr 07 2016

The fears of world economic growth (slowing) are not causing a concern for business owners here in the U.S. with all the help wanted signs up in the

Feb 05 2016

If it does print, sub-200,000 I think it's going to worry the Fed. If jobs are below 200,000, it's going to cause some more financial market turmoil. Stocks are probably going to get hit and bonds are going to rally. It's not going to take a lot. The market is biased to think a recession is looming on the horizon. This might be one of the first times we talk ourselves into a

Feb 05 2016

First time jobless claims are elevated. They're not down at 250,000, 260,000. The layoffs seem to be

Feb 05 2016

Let's see what happens tomorrow. The Fed's kind of historically split here, where there's hardened positions on both sides. For many of the members of the dovish slant they want to see job creation continue at the rapid pace of last year, but for others on the Fed that's not a

Feb 04 2016

The future is somewhat darker ... the labor market may be past its peak for this cycle. It looks like the labor market has scaled back its rapid advance last

Jan 29 2016

It's not going to be smooth sailing in 2016, but we don't see the ship sinking either, and the rising concern about a recession later on this year triggered by China, those fears need a reality

Jan 27 2016

Don't count the economy out yet with the darkening skies seen in January as world stock markets fell on worries over China and crude oil and world growth. Worries don't become

Jan 15 2016

The economy got hit from all sides in December. If these weak data keep going into 2016, the outlook is going to grow even dimmer given the recent financial market turbulence and the fears over what a slowdown in China means for the rest of the

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