David Rosenberg - AeroFarms


Last quote by David Rosenberg

The bond market is in synch with the Fed in the near term (a June hike is largely priced in) but pay attention to this divergence further out – it can't be sustained. Just remember that 10 of the last 13 Fed hiking cycles have been miscalculations that ended in recession.feedback
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May 24 2017
David Rosenberg has been quoted 37 times. The one recent article where David Rosenberg has been quoted is The Fed wants to raise rates this year. One thing could stand in the way. Most recently, David Rosenberg was quoted as having said, “Long-dated yields have refused to move higher even as the Fed signals an intent to unwind its bloated balance sheet later this year. With the Fed continuing to push the funds rate higher, this means a flatter yield curve with the risk of it inverting – take note because this has presaged every recession over the past 50 years.”.
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David Rosenberg quotes

This indeed is the Teflon market. Even investors who were screaming to sell the market if Trump got elected just ahead of last November's vote have become some of the most vocal cheerleaders.feedback

People on Bay Street and on Wall Street love to believe in the wealth effect on spending from what the equity market does and it is actually way down near the bottom of the list for what really drives consumer confidence. What has a much more powerful impact on confidence is job creation and growth in the paycheck. If Donald Trump has his view that trade deficits with anybody have to be redressed that is a much bigger deal for Canada than the next few points on the TSX.feedback

There was very little movement in the economic outlook – moderate growth overall with a mix of solid job gains, decent household spending and soft business outlays. I think the most important comment was the more dovish tone towards inflation expectations, and the point made about inflation hitting target reflects base effects from a year ago as well as an array of transitory factors.feedback

Donald Trump is a victim of being elected late in the cycle, with multiples extended and the Fed now a headwind.feedback

Because everyone is anticipating lower marginal tax rates in 2017, there are no sellers in this market, at least through the year-end. So this extends the Trump honeymoon period.feedback

It is a casino atmosphere, in keeping with Trump's area of expertise. I have found that it almost always pays after an election to ultimately do the opposite of what the markets initially priced in.feedback

Remember, loose lips sink ships, and his willingness to continue to vent frustrations through his Twitter account is, in a word, bizarre (and tells me as a strategist that we are in a world of heightened political risk...).feedback

In other words, nothing here to write home about.feedback

Most of the patterns, both in the realm of financial assets and the real economy, are flashing this signal – one of a very mature market. Now I am not sure if this is the seventh inning, or the ninth, it is likely somewhere in between.feedback

We'll see how brave the Fed will be – we know what happened last year after the Fed went and for two or three months, it wasn't a pretty picture.feedback

Having cash on hand, reducing the beta of the portfolio, focusing on the running yield, and stepping up in quality across the capital structure are all going to pay off in terms of preserving capital, generating decent mid-single digit net returns at the very least, with a view towards allocating the dry powder at better price levels that will allow for a return to high-single digit or even double-digit returns once the dust settles.feedback

The problem is that the market is not priced for it. I wouldn't be surprised that we see some kind of repeat as we had towards the end of last year into January-February, which was something close to a 12 percent correction.feedback

And, let's face it: The last five or six [economic] numbers have been really soft.feedback

You have a perfect storm here if you get something like a Fed rate hike into the next several months.feedback

Discipline means always buying the fear and selling the greed. On a scale of one to 10, we are at eight on this scale. So start scaling back.feedback

On a historical basis, the overall stock market has become expensive, but not relative to bonds. People have been looking in the stock market for yield, in the form of dividends, because the bond market has become so expensive and bond yields have gotten so low.feedback

Credit quality is becoming an issue after the last few years of debt issuance used to fund share buybacks, dividend payouts and M&A activity. The question is whether the 50-plus companies that Moody's downgraded to 'junk' status in the first quarter was just the thin edge of the wedge. The remainder that are a mere notch away have a combined debt load of $294 billion – which would just flood the high-yield marketplace.feedback

I totally understand the temptation to be bullish and constructive on the macroeconomic outlook, and try as I may to seek out the good news, all I can really see is a whole lot of downside growth risk and a whole lot of complacency at the same time.feedback

We were told by all the pundits and media types about how great the payroll number was in June. The veracity of that report is now called into question.feedback

We use about 95 percent less water to grow the plants, about 50 percent less fertilizer as nutrients and zero pesticides, herbicide, fungicides. We're helping create jobs as well as create a good story to inspire the community and inspire other businesses.feedback

You want to be involved in companies with a more local than international flavor.feedback

Bottom line is it's not just a U.K. story. Bigger picture, it's going to usher in a period of intense uncertainty in a critical chunk of global GDP at a time when growth is already so feeble.feedback

The Fed has been so wrong on its forecasts for so long. They have proven their bark is far worse than their bite. None of this jawboning can be taken very seriously.feedback

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