Last quote by David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg quotes
Having cash on hand, reducing the beta of the portfolio, focusing on the running yield, and stepping up in quality across the capital structure are all going to pay off in terms of preserving capital, generating decent mid-single digit net returns at the very least, with a view towards allocating the dry powder at better price levels that will allow for a return to high-single digit or even double-digit returns once the dust settles.
The problem is that the market is not priced for it. I wouldn't be surprised that we see some kind of repeat as we had towards the end of last year into January-February, which was something close to a 12 percent correction.
And, let's face it: The last five or six [economic] numbers have been really soft.
You have a perfect storm here if you get something like a Fed rate hike into the next several months.
Discipline means always buying the fear and selling the greed. On a scale of one to 10, we are at eight on this scale. So start scaling back.
On a historical basis, the overall stock market has become expensive, but not relative to bonds. People have been looking in the stock market for yield, in the form of dividends, because the bond market has become so expensive and bond yields have gotten so low.
Credit quality is becoming an issue after the last few years of debt issuance used to fund share buybacks, dividend payouts and M&A activity. The question is whether the 50-plus companies that Moody's downgraded to 'junk' status in the first quarter was just the thin edge of the wedge. The remainder that are a mere notch away have a combined debt load of $294 billion – which would just flood the high-yield marketplace.
I totally understand the temptation to be bullish and constructive on the macroeconomic outlook, and try as I may to seek out the good news, all I can really see is a whole lot of downside growth risk and a whole lot of complacency at the same time.
We were told by all the pundits and media types about how great the payroll number was in June. The veracity of that report is now called into question.
We use about 95 percent less water to grow the plants, about 50 percent less fertilizer as nutrients and zero pesticides, herbicide, fungicides. We're helping create jobs as well as create a good story to inspire the community and inspire other businesses.
You want to be involved in companies with a more local than international flavor.
Bottom line is it's not just a U.K. story. Bigger picture, it's going to usher in a period of intense uncertainty in a critical chunk of global GDP at a time when growth is already so feeble.
The Fed has been so wrong on its forecasts for so long. They have proven their bark is far worse than their bite. None of this jawboning can be taken very seriously.