Diane Swonk


Last quote by Diane Swonk

Taylor and Warsh are more cut out of the same fabric. Taylor is the economist version of Warsh, and Taylor is Warsh's mentor.feedback
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Oct 16 2017 Federal Reserve
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Diane Swonk is associated, including Fed and July. Most recently, Diane Swonk has been quoted saying: “It suggests the fed funds rate is way too low right now.” in the article Horse race for Fed chair pits Warsh against mentor, and brings Yellen back.
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Diane Swonk quotes

Sep 15 2017

It looks like there are going to be some fairly large disruptions when you think about tourism.feedback

Sep 14 2017

This is with some Harvey, but there's no reason to expect it to go away. There's still tens of thousands of people in temporary hotels paid for by FEMA. This could definitely persist.feedback

Sep 14 2017

This is really going to complicate matters for the Fed. CPI is still 1.6 which is what it was in July. It's still too cool for the Fed, but there are some trends in here that are coming through from Harvey and Irma which will be hard to write off as one-time events.feedback

Sep 13 2017

We could continue to see that disappoint but I wouldn't expect it to go to zero. It's been a continued drag.feedback

Sep 13 2017

There's going to be debate about how transient those distortions are because this rebuilding is going to take along time.feedback

Sep 13 2017

You could get an upside surprise on energy prices, but it's still going to be a weak inflation number and it's going to leave the Fed [officials] fighting among themselves.feedback

Sep 13 2017

We're already scarce labor and materials.feedback

Sep 01 2017

I was expecting a lower payroll number. August tends to be a fluke month. The question is what kind of distortions we'll see next month with Hurricane Harvey.feedback

Sep 01 2017

The composition of gains was much better. 36,000 in manufacturing and 28,000 in construction. That helped the wages so we hold at 2.5 percent from a year ago. Otherwise we would have fallen short.feedback

Aug 31 2017

All of the things packed into the tax code would have to be unpacked.feedback

Aug 31 2017 - Trump Presidency

There is a real danger in sort of setting the agenda and then not having Congress really on the same page and having to cut deals.feedback

Aug 28 2017

Gasoline prices are going to pick up. We won't know how much until waters recede. We know that production is currently offline.feedback

Aug 24 2017

He doesn't want a stronger euro right now. His biggest hurdle right now is they don't want to fall through the ice.feedback

Aug 24 2017

He already flirted with it, and I think he went further than many people thought he should.feedback

Aug 24 2017

They really do wish they had a depreciation in the euro that would put him in a position to raise rates rather than start the balance sheet first, but they are running out of bonds to buy. They're going to have to start telegraphing it. They're walking on even softer ground than the Fed did. The Fed telegraphed gradualism.feedback

Aug 16 2017

Jobs don't cure the fundamental problems that ail us.feedback

Aug 15 2017

This looks like it could boost GDP a little bit, especially with the weak inflation numbers we saw. The weakness in inflation is not a reflection of weakness in consumer spending. Consumers are taking advantage of discounts and buying.feedback

Aug 10 2017

I wouldn't be surprised to see that show up in accommodations. There won't be enough to nudge the Fed yet.feedback

Aug 02 2017 - Immigration

It's half of labor force growth today. Going forward it's a bigger drag. We have yet to meet the critical mass of baby boomer's retiring. That's still ahead. The real issue is what would it do to potential growth in an economy where we need more people to replace retirees. You're closing another door to offset the drag from an aging population.feedback

Jul 31 2017

It may overshadow employment this week. Jobs is interesting because we need at least an 0.3 percent gain in wages to just hold onto a 2.5 percent year-over-year gain. It is still a conundrum on the wages, and inflation is not likely to accelerate. Inflation is not likely to accelerate. It's likely to decelerate. This is worrisome for the Fed.feedback

Jul 31 2017

What's interesting is there are all these one offs.feedback

Jul 27 2017

The shipments were good with the upward revisions. Core durables were up 0.2 percent on shipments.feedback

Jul 25 2017

Everybody expects (inflation) to be low. There's an inertia.feedback

Jul 25 2017

We're in these unchartered waters. All of the old rules don't apply.feedback

Jul 24 2017

I think we are going to get to a third rate hike this year, but it will be driven by the inflation data. There is a real desire on the part of the Fed to hit the pause button until the haze clears and they can see more clearly what is happening.feedback

Jul 06 2017

I was looking for a low [nonfarm payrolls] number of 150,000 because we're starting to get retail layoffs. The real conundrum is whether we get any wage acceleration. I'm more concerned about that.feedback

Jun 12 2017

There's little that could change their mind. My guess is it will be like a reverse taper, and then go up. Given we don't have any road map – and it's unprecedented – we are once again in uncharted waters. The Fed has their view of what's important, and the market has theirs.feedback

Jun 10 2017

The optimism guiding everything from tax reform, infrastructure spending, deregulation – that at least has all been moved out if not sidelined. It's hard to think that all of this would be done by the August recess by Congress. I have a lot of clients, big multi-national clients, who have a lot of money on the sidelines. They were ready to go in January and because of uncertainty related to fiscal policy, they are now sort of deer in the headlights and on hold. That is not what we want to see.feedback

Jun 10 2017

Many people are talking about another showdown over the debt ceiling. We've been down this road before. But we don't seem to learn our lessons very well.feedback

Jun 02 2017

They're not paying out as much, as they say they have shortages. The increase in wages in the manufacturing sector are not reflecting the fact they have shortages.feedback

Jun 02 2017

We have a debt ceiling showdown. We have uncertainty around policy. I was not waiting for a September hike anyway. There could still be three rate hikes this year but the Fed needs to see a lot more wage acceleration. We're hearing a lot of complaints about the shortages. It's not being matched by wage acceleration.feedback

Jun 02 2017

This is enough of a gain for the Fed, given how their threshold is 100,000 or less, but it's going to be a tough one for the Fed and [rate-hiking path] going forward. The average since the beginning of the year is 181,000. It still is strong enough for a third rate hike.feedback

Jun 01 2017

The good news is this is the best college grad year in a decade. We should see full-time hires pick up. Those are all signs that they're broadening the pool.feedback

May 26 2017

We're still on track for a 2 percent growth economy, give or take a little, but not a 3 percent economy. It may not sound like much, but the difference is important. Those two factors make for headwinds that are hard to overcome. It's like trying to use old road maps in a GPS world. We need to acknowledge that.feedback

May 24 2017

I think it'll confirm that we're still at 3.5 percent [Q2 GDP], 3.5 puts a little above 2 percent for the first half.feedback

May 24 2017 - Federal Reserve

I think there's still two rate hikes. What they want to do is set up a trajectory so there's a path to rate hikes and unwind the balance sheet in a measured and slow way before Chair Yellen leaves office.feedback

May 17 2017

Student debt is a different animal with different rules. It has some good effects, but not always. Given how hard our credit machine was hit, you would expect it to take even longer to restore.feedback

May 05 2017

It says the economy is still doing just fine, and it's standing in the place we thought it would be. The consumer is still there. The consumer is willing to spend on experience.feedback

May 05 2017

Unfortunately, this is what full employment looks like in an economy that has a shadow of a Great Recession. The changes in the economy is causing pain for retailers. It's causing restructuring. It's how, not how much we spend.feedback

May 04 2017

There were a lot of retail closings, and this is the time when you tend to hire up, but you could have another retail loss. There was a slowdown in health care last month, and it's expected to slow again. The labor markets are getting tighter, but there's a risk that the jobs number could be disappointing a bit. We got fooled by the 200,000-plus months, and the reality is you have to do a moving average. We're still pretty much on trend.feedback

May 03 2017

There is a lot of political pressure to create jobs in the United States.feedback

Apr 27 2017

It's going to be weak. It's the residual seasonality. They just can't get the first quarter right. It's the wacky weather, delayed tax returns and residual seasonality. It looks like the second quarter [growth] is over 3 percent, so if you have the two quarters, you get 2 percent growth.feedback

Apr 26 2017

It's more about closing loopholes than reducing rates because if you just go to 15 percent, you're going to leave a large hole in the federal budget.feedback

Apr 17 2017

Unlike last year, we don't have an overhang of inventories. We still had great jobs, we created a half million jobs in the first quarter. This is quirky, but it's not endemic...It is just another soft start but a bit of a head fake, but the good news is there's a lot more reason to be optimistic this year than there was a year ago.feedback

Apr 12 2017 - Federal Reserve

If any of his budgets are really realized, they're deficit-inducing and he wants to keep interest rates low. Any president that's wanted to keep interest rates low has ended up with a lot of inflation, like Truman, Johnson and Nixon. It's interesting. This also illustrates the gap between the administration and the House and Senate. The House and Senate have consistently wanted someone more hawkish at the Fed than Janet Yellen. It doesn't surprise me one bit.feedback

Apr 12 2017 - Federal Reserve

Without border adjustment, you're $2.3 trillion in the hole and that means you have to move to a higher corporate tax rate.feedback

Apr 07 2017

There is little reason to hire up when you are planning to close a store.feedback

Apr 07 2017

This reflects a combination of lousy weather during the month ... and the ongoing move of consumers from shopping in stores to online. Major retailers, including JCPenney, Macy's, and Sears, have already announced a flurry of store closing and shift to online operations for this spring.feedback

Apr 07 2017

Manufacturing is healing. It should be healing. It's a shadow of what it was. The manufacturing sector, after being bludgeoned last year, is coming back. That's good, but it's not booming.feedback

Apr 07 2017

Going from positive to negative alone is huge. You don't even need big gains. It just stopped being a drag. The steel industry is starting to come back. Mining has bottomed as well.feedback

Apr 07 2017

Clearly, it's just not one or the other, not just bricks or clicks.feedback

Apr 07 2017

Retail is one of the largest employers in the country, and it's going to go through a pretty massive secular restructuring. We shop differently now, and no one has the right model.feedback

Mar 30 2017

It went from being implicit to explicit. They wanted to show the Fed could reflate the economy.feedback

Mar 30 2017

It should be a wakeup call. They have to meet the core, but the reality is we're moving in the right direction, and the core is within spitting distance. They have to take into account that monetary policy works with a lag. You're going to get a hot inflation number and weak consumption number. When it's 70 degrees in Chicago in February, we don't consume any heat.feedback

Mar 14 2017

CPI, I think, is going to come in pretty good and it will feel pretty warm. My guess is you're going to see a higher level of certainty on this multiple rate hike scenario. We're finally at a place where the economy has some self-feeding momentum. It's not just the Fed propping up the us up again. They need to illustrate that.feedback

Mar 10 2017

I think the risk of four rate hikes went up dramatically. It's been the quantity of jobs, outpacing the quality of jobs. We're now seeing some jobs come about in manufacturing and construction. It looks like GDP has some issues with seasonality in the first quarter. That has been an ongoing issue. It's the volume of jobs versus over overall job growth. Now we're finally seeing some good jobs come back in manufacturing and construction ... we're finally getting wage acceleration and that's what the Fed wants to see.feedback

Mar 09 2017

It's going to be hard for this report to be a negative in terms of rate hikes. What's important to remember is the threshold is very low for the Fed. That is something we have to get used to.feedback

Feb 24 2017 - Mexico

That's really going to open the door for China to have a lot more power within Asia and power in Latin America, and in North America, even talking to Mexico directly now. That's going to change the equation for China and the balance of power on trade relative to the U.S. if we really pursue these bilateral agreements. It may actually be to China's benefit and our loss.feedback

Feb 21 2017

We actually think by the end of the year, they'll be up 3.6 percent (year-over-year). You can easily get to 3 percent mathematically by slowly growing wages at their slowest pace last year.feedback

Feb 21 2017

Financial services was a driving factor of employment gains, and here's one of the areas where employment gains came in, and we lost 34 cents an hour. That's stunning. Bonuses were down for a third year in a row. Those bonuses were tied to incentive pay as well.feedback

Feb 21 2017 - Snapchat

The bottom line is that January is a fluke in our comparisons. Our numbers suggest we can snap back over the next several months. By mid-year, you'll have more normal wage gains again.feedback

Feb 17 2017 - Walmart

With the exception of the wage data in January, the data is there [for a hike]. The question is what are the perimeters on the uncertainty? You have a lot of things that could roil financial markets in a major way and a lot of uncertainty. The data is saying we should [hike rates], but there's an argument for a potential pause.feedback

Feb 15 2017

The core numbers were still good. The consumer is resilient and coming through. In the inflation data, almost half of it was the sharp increase in prices at the pump. Does it mean a March rate hike for sure? No, but it's an open door. It's a warmer economy and it was a warmer January. We're around 2 percent growth in the first quarter which is what we expected. It's good fundamentally.feedback

Feb 14 2017 - Federal Reserve

The Fed has been pretty consistent that it wants the rate hikes to come at a gradual pace, but that could change if Fed officials believe the budget-and-tax package that Trump is pushing is too big and coming too late in the economic cycle, with the economy already at full employment. She is going to want to fly under the radar as much as possible this week.feedback

Feb 02 2017

We had 19 states raise their minimum wage in January, including some big states like California.feedback

Feb 01 2017

Even small rate changes from these low levels are very destabilizing on financial markets abroad as well as at home. They want to go gradual and be orderly, not disorderly. They can only react. There is so much uncertainty. We don't know what's going to happen next, and because of that the Fed has to be in reaction mode and not getting too far ahead of itself on rate hikes.feedback

Jan 12 2017 - Amazon

The move from bricks to clicks is causing major disruption in the retail industry.feedback

Jan 03 2017

It's all to do with the fact it's a global industry. This is part of the supply chain. It's U.S. producers that produce in the U.S. It's foreign producers that produce in the U.S. It's all part of a chain.feedback

Dec 14 2016

We know that driving miles are up. Prices at the pump went down, but gasoline sales went up.feedback

Dec 14 2016

The retail sales number is not really capturing the move to online. Where you do see strength is food and restaurants surged.feedback

Dec 02 2016 - Unemployment

It wasn't a slam dunk number by any means. The wages (number) is the most important, but it's important to know it came off a surge last month. It's a hiccup in wages, but not enough to stop the Fed.feedback

Dec 02 2016 - Unemployment

You've got to take it in context. Last month was an extraordinary jump. I'm not happy with it … but at the end of the day the wage number was really strong in October, so you take a moving average and that's what the Fed will do.feedback

Nov 15 2016

I've been hearing mixed stuff about October but retailers sound pretty optimistic about the holiday season, so they must have started off November pretty well.feedback

Nov 15 2016

It will look like a good month because of the autos. The question is what does the core look like.feedback

Nov 03 2016

Consumer confidence surveys show the current situation is fine. Employment is fine. It's the expectations that have deteriorated, which you could expect to see, given how ugly this election has gotten.feedback

Nov 03 2016

I'm looking for 190,000, a little warmer. Retailers are hiring a little earlier than they were. They have pulled ahead hiring to try to compete. It's a sign of a tighter labor market.feedback

Nov 02 2016 - Unemployment

She wants to hedge against another recession.feedback

Oct 25 2016

The last statement was nuanced. It would be nice if this was not nuanced and they say they're ready to go. You get a sense that the debate that's rising in the Fed is about more than a December rate hike. It's about going forward.feedback

Oct 25 2016 - Federal Reserve

If they do put it in, I think it would reduce the number of dissents. I don't think Janet Yellen minds having a pretty big showdown, even with her own vice chairman.feedback

Oct 25 2016

We have an election that's highly contentious. I don't think it's the same situation it was a year ago.feedback

Oct 11 2016

Communications are a wreck. Data dependence was wonderful to convey the Fed wouldn't raise rates for a very long time.feedback

Sep 20 2016

It has been coming down consistently. The Fed has consistently been lowering the terminal rate and lowering its trajectory. The markets have been more accurate than the Fed which we know, but that doesn't mean they will continue to be that way.feedback

Sep 20 2016

I think they add more confusion than clarity because there's such a dispersion. It's not clear how much it represents a consensus of what the Fed expects.feedback

Sep 19 2016

They will want to prepare markets so that when do they move, it will be an almost non-event.feedback

Sep 19 2016

I think the Fed will give us a statement that opens the door wide for a December rate increase.feedback

Sep 16 2016

Inflation data is warmer than expected, and it will give fodder to those (Fed officials) who already coalesced around a rate hike. But we're going to see a hawkish hold.feedback

Sep 16 2016 - Federal Reserve

It doesn't matter if it's September or December. It's where we were a year ago, the Fed wants to get a rate hike in this year. Once-a-year-Yellen.feedback

Sep 16 2016

To keep the dissenters at bay, you need to have a statement that's a little more hawkish. This isn't quite the punt it was a year ago in September when there was chaos in the market and China was on the edge. This time we're getting very, very close. I think (noted dove Fed Gov. Lael) Brainard will get to say let's wait. I think the mixed economic data gives them enough reason to pause.feedback

Sep 14 2016

There is a real issue on cause and effect and a vicious cycle of if you pull out, do you have the tail wagging the dog on financial markets telling the Fed what to do. On the other side of it, we can't afford to have a sort of very disorderly unwinding of financial markets either.feedback

Sep 14 2016

It does make me worried about can we really get the fiscal reforms and fiscal policy we need to get better economic growth and get the Fed sidelined. I'm not sure that can happen.feedback

Sep 14 2016

Austerity sort of took a higher priority than it should have earlier in the cycle.feedback

Sep 09 2016

What Rosengren said is nothing new. Rosengren wanted a September rate hike.feedback

Sep 09 2016

Core retail sales should still be good outside of autos.feedback

Sep 09 2016

We've heard from Dan Tarullo in the inner circle and he's consistent with the view to be more dovish. He's not opposed to a rate hike this year but he would be for December. (The markets) allowed Rosengren to trump Tarullo, and Brainard has an even greater sway in Yellen's inner circle.feedback

Sep 09 2016

Retail sales will certainly be important for the Fed. We get industrial production too which is likely to be lousy.feedback

Sep 01 2016

It's horrible and the costs are going up. It's really hard on margins. This doesn't suggest there's a lot of pricing pressures either.feedback

Sep 01 2016

It's nasty. It really is a tale of two economies still. That's the issue. The consumer is doing fine. It's not going to determine what the Fed does. It's a signal that we've already seen ... that the manufacturing sector continues to struggle.feedback

Aug 25 2016 - Federal Reserve

Investors are not pricing in a Fed tightening. We still have uncertainty coming from abroad, and there are a lot of land mines out there. I think Yellen will want to keep her options open in her Jackson Hole speech.feedback

Aug 24 2016

The Fed has failed to come to a consensus on communications. The blow to credibility is leaving markets pricing a form of infinite easing.feedback

Aug 18 2016

It's the Fed's conundrum. ... The markets are pricing in easing infinity. If they raise rates, they could destabilize the markets. If they don't raise rates, they're feeding a bubble. It's a hard place to be in.feedback

Aug 18 2016

I think she's going to play her cards very close to the vest. I don't think she can signal a September hike.feedback

Jul 29 2016

We're tired of talking about rate hikes when it's not going to happen for a while.feedback

Jul 27 2016

By September, we may have more easing from abroad. My sense is the board is more sensitive to that and it's not about election risk. It's about policy risk. I think December or January is more likely. Is there a chance for September? If you're data dependent, yes ... I don't think they're going to do it but you could have people chattering out there. We've seen a lot of squawking around the Jackson Hole meeting when they're at a pivotal point.feedback

Jul 27 2016

They added that near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished. That was a throw in there for the people who are looking at the buoyancy of the financial markets and saying they could raise rates. My take on that was to keep the dissents to one. Even though they upgraded their outlook on employment and consumer spending, they left inflation unchanged. That is despite the fact that it is rising.feedback

Jul 14 2016

We've got synchronous unconventional policy and that gets you in a vicious cycle, as well. The issue is how far can we go? Negative rates for the U.S. are a big problem. ... The Fed's trying to cushion the economy. That said, if things go south, they have a problem.feedback

Jul 12 2016

He's one of the more prominent in an industry where you would not expect it.feedback

Jun 29 2016

The Fed is handcuffed at the moment. You have got a lot of things moving in the wrong direction in the view of the Fed because of the vote in Britain.feedback

Jun 14 2016

It's a fine line to walk about not making it too big of a point. You want to discount it a bit, but if you make too big of a point then you talk up the market jitters.feedback

Jun 14 2016

The Fed's dealing with the same stuff. It's just the Fed has painted themselves into a corner with data dependency because one piece of outlier [jobs] data does not make a trend.feedback

Jun 14 2016

The push to inhibit trade, close borders, and [increase] regulation across a broad swath of industries are all a threat to growth in 2017. The only policy offset is the realization by both sides of the aisle that corporate tax reform could bring money home and increase our competitive advantage.feedback

Jun 06 2016

If we get a decline in June jobs, and the U.K. opts to stay in the EU, then we have a shot at a July hike. She's clearly leaving all options open. Cautious optimism was the dominant theme of her talk, and saying not to make too much about the May employment report.feedback

May 06 2016

It's the Fed speak we've got to watch, although I think we'll see more dissidents than a symphony. It's a big week for data. I'm not sure it will clarify, it will probably just confuse given the range of speakers we get from the Fed.feedback

May 06 2016

There are fewer but better-quality jobs. They're dominated by business and professionals. It's new college grads. It's part of the reason why year over year, we had an acceleration in wages. They are full time, science, engineering and accounting.feedback

Apr 27 2016

They're walking this very fine line which means they can't provide the certainty that markets want, but it's really not helpful either. It's a very dysfunctional Fed confusing the market.feedback

Apr 27 2016

The problem is you've got disagreement. The gap has widened. You've got dissents. When you have dissents, you have volatility.feedback

Apr 27 2016

Divergent monetary policy matters because you can derail stuff inadvertently, and that's what the Fed doesn't want to do either. What happens abroad comes back on our shores. The Fed has to walk such a careful line of saying they're doing monetary policy for the U.S. but they can't ignore international conditions.feedback

Apr 27 2016

I don't think they can put the balance of risk back in, because they can't agree what the balance of risks are. It just means continued uncertainty, continued uncertainty for the market.feedback

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