George Goncalves

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Last quote by George Goncalves

With the (balance sheet) unwind officially announced, additional bond supply will be hitting markets when investors are already very long duration, if losses start mounting as rates rise, outflows could feel as painful as in 2013.feedback
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Oct 13 2017
The latest quote from George Goncalves is: “We believe that a Warsh Fed would be the most interesting and a clear shift from the way the Fed is currently run.”. It comes from the Warsh seen breaking from current Fed policy stance: Nomura article. You’ll find on this page 26 articles with George Goncalves quoted on topics such as Fed, July and market. George Goncalves has been quoted 47 times in 26 articles.
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George Goncalves quotes

Jul 06 2017

Now, it's all a matter of whether this on the margin is adjusting positions, or there's an actual active decision among some of the big bond investors around the world…If they see maybe something fundamentally has shifted, this thing could keep going because who is going to support the market if the central banks themselves are shying away?feedback

Jun 07 2017

Maybe we could get a scenario where bonds were wrong and stocks were right after all. My comment speaks to the fact that bond markets are skeptical of the equity market so any sort of dialing back on some of the concerns around policy getting done would be bad for bonds.feedback

Jun 07 2017

I think this has the potential of breaking that correlation, which has been a weird one. It happens a lot during quantitative easing, but we're not doing quantitative easing. Bonds up and stocks up when the Fed is going to raise interest rates? It's a contradiction, and the market has been ignoring the Fed. This clears the deck for the auctions, and the Fed next week, for which we're not pricing in enough of a concession. We get through tomorrow, and [yields] keep riding higher into the Fed, and the Fed will ultimately dictate where we go.feedback

May 26 2017

It wouldn't stop them from hiking in June if we get a weak jobs print, but I think it's what will set the tone of the [Fed post-meeting] statement and press conference. If it's relatively strong, and you see wage increases, which hasn't been happening, they're going to sound even more optimistic at the June meeting and temper some of this dovishness.feedback

May 26 2017

Next week's nonfarm payrolls is critical. It's been taking a back seat to all other data. It's been a low volatility event for the last four to five months. If it's a weak number, and they hike in June, the market is going to question whether they are done for the year. That's the trillion-dollar question.feedback

May 03 2017

That's going to dictate whether there's demand at these low levels of rates. We have to finish the week above [a 10-year yield] of 2.35, 2.40 to start getting back into a sell-off, which would then validate equities and everything else.feedback

May 03 2017 - Trump Presidency

The longest they could probably go was 50 years and not do much in terms of size. We're not recommending it. We just don't think there's enough demand for it. We think it would be harder to issue in a predictable way. We recommend either increasing the auction size of the 10-year and 30-year or introducing a 20-year which is also mentioned by TBAC. That would make sense.feedback

May 03 2017 - Trump Presidency

We've done our homework, and we think this isn't similar to what's in Europe. We're talking about the U.S., which is the benchmark of global bond markets and what is used as a reference for liquidity around the whole world, as opposed to emerging markets and other countries opportunistically issuing long-term bonds because there's some demand in their pensions. We have to think about the stability and liquidity that our bond market creates for everything.feedback

Feb 27 2017

If you know what comes next, the timing of it and how big is it going to be, that might be enough to get people satiated. The market is positioning for details. If it goes swimmingly, we're back at 2.45, 2.50. If it doesn't we'll be back at 2.10. I think it's got to be beyond the soft stuff. It's got to be tangible. It's got to be real.feedback

Feb 12 2017

[Yellen's] always a market moving event, but I feel like basically there's no upside, there's no reason for her to come out and use this as an opportunity to launch the Fed's pace, or trajectory for the Fed's balance sheet. It's too early.feedback

Feb 12 2017

If the outlook is so rosy and so robust and they're feeling they are behind the curve, they could ramp up three hikes in the second half of the year. March is not going to be an insurance hike to start the process for 2017. You just don't do that to get the ball rolling. You do it when you have more confidence in the outlook … It's all about confidence. Not confidence around [Trump], just confidence about what's going to be delivered on the government side.feedback

Jan 10 2017

Those micro details are definitely starting to permeate the conversation. I'm amazed it took that long, but there was a lot of hope and excitement around it. It's a new year.feedback

Jan 10 2017

Because they're not fleshed out, they're inconsistent. They want a stronger dollar, but that's bad for manufacturing. How do you square all these things? Some of the macro implications of changing how business is conducted itself falls into the uncertainty category for sure.feedback

Dec 01 2016

In order to stay above 2.50, it's got to be a really good number. The way we're going, it's like an unhinged market. It's also going to be counterproductive for things down the road. This is not a healthy adjustment in rates. There's going to be some losses on this.feedback

Nov 23 2016

It's early days to know what' s going to happen, but it feels very technical and I would not just attribute this to U.S. data.feedback

Nov 14 2016 - Trump administration

We're moving away from an Obama Administration to a Trump Administration which has clearly a different priority set, and the economy is going to have to retool and recalibrate, and that's going to mean disruption. That doesn't mean a recession. It just means chances, as we adjust to the new world.feedback

Nov 14 2016

Before the fair value was closer to 1.50 on the 10-year and now the fair value is 2.50 and we basically got to 2.30 overnight. We went from a world starving for yield and people chasing bond markets to very low rates, which was wrong. Now you could get upside of 25 basis points and you could get 25 basis points downside.feedback

Nov 11 2016

Everyone across the street is trying to calibrate in their heads where exactly can rates go.feedback

Nov 04 2016

With the markets and the media not prepared for such an outcome, a Trump win will still most likely unleash a flight-to-quality rally amid global risk-off, with (Treasury prices) rallying sharply as a safe haven trade.feedback

Sep 15 2016

You have almost $200 billion a month and a captive buyer. That hasn't changed. So what's new is just that we're not learning they want to do more.feedback

Sep 15 2016

The last two years especially, the markets have been operating on the nuances coming out of the overseas market, more than anything locally driven. It worked in one direction in terms of driving rates to super-low levels, back in July and it works in the opposite direction as well.feedback

Sep 15 2016

It shows in the first place that bonds were overvalued and disconnected from fundamentals.feedback

Sep 15 2016

The problem is the market is accustomed to seeing bold easing programs. Basically we're kind of toward the end of the line when it comes to central banks being able to move the broader risk markets and it's going to come back to fundamentals.feedback

Jul 01 2016

Given how it's been very technical, I do think breaking 1 percent requires a recession, or people really start to fear that's what we're heading for. People are talking about that. 1.25/1.30 is a good level to stabilize, and 1.15 is what technicians are looking at. These are just numbers, but nothing stops it from going lower.feedback

Jun 29 2016

What got us here is Brexit news, and what's keeping yields here is a level of skepticism that this is not over and, if this is a long-term issue, then rates won't go up for a long, long time.feedback

Jun 27 2016 - Japan

You don't want to expose that you don't have any ammunition. You don't want to go into a battle saying you're not loaded. A lot of the stuff is about psychology, making people think you could actually do something. If they were to prematurely ease and not have any merit behind it or confidence it would work, it would be counterproductive. It would be just like when Japan did negative rates in January.feedback

Jun 16 2016

The central banks are Hoovering up all of these bonds. But yet it hasn't promoted growth or inflation. Maybe these policies are not effective. That new theme, which has been growing throughout 2016, is: 'Those guys can't generate growth and help the world economy. I have to buy bonds.feedback

Jun 16 2016

I'm just worried about what this means for the state of the world when you have rates grind lower and people are questioning the efficacy of central banks. To me, the bigger issue at hand is we don't have a sustainable way to create upward growth.feedback

Jun 16 2016

What recent history has shown us is you cannot definitively say there's a level in rates that cannot be breached.feedback

May 23 2016

If they were going to hike in June, the two-year would be at 1 percent.feedback

May 23 2016

We're basically trying to guess a three-month window of a Fed hike. Let's just say they're going to hike. We don't know if it's July or September when they want to hike. If they don't hike in July, they lose credibility. In June, people will give them a pass. June will be a 'hawkish' skip where they signal they were very close to hiking.feedback

Mar 09 2016

That would create a risk-on move into next week which would take some pressure off of the Fed. I think that everyone's on edge because of what has been happening lately with central banks not being able to hit the mark and delivering what markets have been expecting.feedback

Mar 09 2016

It's a central bank-a-palooza. In many ways the Fed has the benefit of going last in the sequence of central bank activity. If the ECB does it right, and the BOJ threads the needle enough to make sure people don't get confused, the Fed can come in and be reasonable.feedback

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