Jeffrey Lewis

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The latest quote from Jeffrey Lewis is: “You might want to rethink what you're up to. It's a lot easier just apologizing.”. It comes from the Jeff Lewis' Housekeeper Zoila Chavez Packs Up and Moves Out in Dramatic Flipping Out Exit article. You’ll find on this page 46 articles with Jeffrey Lewis quoted on topics such as Iran, North Korea and testing. Jeffrey Lewis has been quoted 85 times in 46 articles.
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Jeffrey Lewis quotes

Sep 27 2017

There are no real, obvious signatures for it.feedback

Sep 27 2017

If you watch them in satellite photos and read their technical publications, it looks like a totally different country.feedback

Sep 27 2017

That's about as clear-cut as it gets.feedback

Sep 26 2017 - Nuclear weapons

There is some research about seat belts – early on, it seems, drivers with seat belts drove more aggressively. Nuclear weapons, for some leaders, do the same thing.feedback

Sep 23 2017

Seismologists are very good at discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. I see no reason to doubt that it was an earthquake.feedback

Sep 14 2017

You can see that the explosion visibly displaces the mountain, which demonstrates both how large the explosion was but also that it occurred in the same tunnel complex as the preceding four nuclear tests. This is useful because the relationship between the size of the explosion and the magnitude of the seismic signals is sensitive to the overburden – how much rock is above the explosion.feedback

Sep 08 2017 - Nuclear weapons

Short of giving them South Korea and a pile of money and eliminating our nuclear weapons, I can't see them giving [their nuclear weapons] up.feedback

Sep 08 2017

North Koreans always point those examples out.feedback

Sep 08 2017 - North Korea

This is one of those areas where we should be able to have negotiation because 1) we don't want a nuclear war, and 2) North Korea shares that interest. Abandonment of denuclearization as a near-term goal [would allow the US] to talk to them about stability, about crisis coordination.feedback

Sep 06 2017 - China

The Chinese response is, Because they're not going to work.' And the data is on their side.feedback

Sep 06 2017 - China

We're going to blame the Chinese for stabbing us in the back instead of admitting that our policy was dumb.feedback

Sep 06 2017 - China

The last thing you would do in that situation is give up your independent nuclear capability. The one thing you hold that they have no control over. You would never give that up in that situation.feedback

Sep 03 2017 - North Korea

If you look at the United States, the Soviet Union and China, by their fifth nuclear tests they were all well on their way to thermonuclear weapons. There is no reason to think that North Korea couldn't do this. The materials are pretty straightforward, so that's not a problem. In the past, the trick was the concept. But you also need tests and data to understand how the materials behave.feedback

Aug 24 2017

For the past few decades, we've relied on mutually assured destruction to protect us from all-out nuclear war. It's always been a fragile peace.feedback

Aug 08 2017 - North Korea

I don't have the slightest doubt that the RVs on these missiles are working. That's done. We're there. North Korea can put a nuclear weapon on New York City.feedback

Jul 31 2017 - Japan

If you attack a nuclear-armed country after it has nuclear weapons that is just a plain old nuclear war.feedback

Jul 29 2017 - US, Russia relations

Attacking a nuclear-armed state is usually a bad idea - which is why countries build nuclear weapons. That is kind of the appeal.feedback

Jul 29 2017 - US, Russia relations

The window for [military action] has closed. People are jumping up and down and screaming [in Washington] not because they are getting ready to attack but because they don't really have that option any more and they accept that it has gone.feedback

Jul 29 2017 - North Korea

They tested from a surprise location deep inside North Korea, near the Chinese border where it would be hard to strike. And they did it at night when satellites that rely on optical images are useless.feedback

Jul 07 2017

The window for denuclearization closed a long time ago.feedback

Jul 06 2017 - Libya

In North Korea at least, everything is organized around the fear that they will be invaded, and that Kim Jong Un will end up like Muammar Qaddafi in Libya or Saddam Hussein in Iraq. It's easy to see how things could get out of hand in a hurry.feedback

Jul 05 2017 - ICBM

We imagine [the North Koreans] to be incompetent buffoons, but…statistically speaking they are clocking in at a pretty decent number: Well over 50% of the launches work.feedback

Jul 05 2017 - ICBM

Even if this is a 7,000-km-range missile, a 10,000-km-range missile that can hit New York isn't far off.feedback

Jul 05 2017

Labor and cement are cheap in North Korea. They don't have to pay. Kim Jong-un has definitely made construction a major element of North Korea's propaganda efforts. For many poor, communist states, the investment associated with massive infrastructure projects probably boosts growth in the short-term. Whether that infrastructure provides a sustainable foundation for future growth is a different question.feedback

Jul 04 2017 - ICBM

This is a big deal: It's an ICBM, not a 'kind of' ICBM. And there's no reason to think that this is going to be the maximum range.feedback

Jul 04 2017 - ICBM

It's not a copy of a crappy Soviet engine, and it's not a pair of Soviet engines kludged together – it's the real thing. When they first unveiled the engine on March 18 they said that the 'world would soon see what this means.' I think we're now seeing them take that basic engine design and execute it for an ICBM.feedback

May 18 2017 - Nuclear weapons

The nuclear weapons are going to be targeted at ports and airfields and probably some army bases where U.S. forces are. What they actually target, of course, is a little bit harder to guess.feedback

May 18 2017

It's not like there is an answer written down in a little book. The North Koreans have a kind of articulated strategy, and they've shown some scary stuff, and we're left to sort of piece together what all that means.feedback

May 15 2017 - North Korea

This is the longest-range missile North Korea has ever tested.feedback

Apr 15 2017

It's not like not doing a nuclear test was good news – this is all part of the same program. It's like they're saying: 'Hey, here's some other bad news.feedback

Apr 15 2017

The natural reaction is: What the hell is that. Maybe there is a KN-08 inside it, maybe there's some new missile inside it, or maybe it's nothing. It's a mystery.feedback

Apr 15 2017

My guess is that what it's intended to convey is that there are more ICBMs coming, more solid fuel missiles.feedback

Apr 15 2017

They want us to know that their missile program is pretty far along.feedback

Apr 15 2017 - ICBM

But if it's not an ICBM itself, it's bridge to an ICBM. What's inside those is a mystery too. I think this is that. But this year, with all this other stuff, nobody cares about something that can go only 100 or 200 km.feedback

Apr 15 2017 - North Korea

In any other year, North Korea having a coastal defense cruise missile and showing it to us for the first time would have made us say 'wo'.feedback

Apr 15 2017

It looks like a real missile. They could go to all the trouble of manufacturing a perfect copy, but if you're doing that, it's just as easy to make the real missile.feedback

Apr 15 2017

And then, if you'll permit me, shit got weird.feedback

Apr 06 2017

They've been able to put a nuke on a missile for a while now. The stated purpose of the last test was to validate the nuclear weapon design that would arm all of North Korea's missiles.feedback

Apr 05 2017

Someone forgot to tell him that a new administration promising a new approach it can't quite articulate is, in fact, the old approach. Previous administrations even used the same words, calling North Korea's actions 'unacceptable' and pointing to a different 'path.feedback

Mar 24 2017

He even used the same language as the Obama and Bush administrations.feedback

Mar 18 2017

News flash, these Venn diagrams do not overlap.feedback

Mar 18 2017

It's a bad strategic idea, but you can understand why military planners would gravitate toward it.feedback

Mar 14 2017 - Nuclear weapons

If they are not going to arm them, they need to say that. They need to make them absolutely clear. The thing the North Koreans are most afraid of is that we're going to kill Kim Jong-un in a decapitating strike and … that will strengthen their incentives to make sure that low level commanders will have the ability to use nuclear weapons. It will make the North Koreans even more jumpy and have a way itchier trigger finger.feedback

Mar 14 2017

In a war they plan to use their weapons early. We plan to hit them before they do that, and the South Koreans plan to hit them before we have a chance to take too long to do that.feedback

Mar 11 2017

This idea that these things were just bargaining chips – something that was true years ago – is superseded by the fact that there is now a rocket force . . . with a commander and a headquarters and subordinate bases, all with missiles. This is now a living, breathing thing.feedback

Mar 11 2017 - ICBM

The ICBM program is real. They've showed us their static engine test. They showed us the mock-up of the nuclear warhead. They have done everything short of actually testing the ICBM. When they do test it, the first time it will probably fail. But eventually it will work. And when it works, people are going to freak out.feedback

Mar 11 2017

China's leaders thought that the important thing was to master the technology. While the United States did fine calculations of the deterrence balance, Chinese leaders tended to think of deterrence like a checklist of achievements.feedback

Mar 11 2017 - THAAD

I don't think that the Chinese and U.S. have, historically, experienced the kind of tit-for-tat modernization that we saw during the U.S.-Soviet arms race. The Chinese more or less modernized for their own reasons and according to their own ideas. I don't see the deployment of Thaad in South Korea as a significant improvement in the ability of the U.S. to monitor Chinese missile tests.feedback

Mar 09 2017

They're missiles, and this is missile defense, and for a lot of people that checks all the boxes. The unintended consequence I can see is that you don't want the South Korean people to think this solves the North Korean missile problem, because it doesn't.feedback

Mar 09 2017 - THAAD

It's not that [China's objections] are irrational, but it's more about what the deployment symbolizes than the radar's actual capability. It's very controversial, the THAAD system. And whoever comes after Park will have the system in place without the responsibility of having agreed to it.feedback

Mar 07 2017 - THAAD

An advantage of the ER Scud over the Rodong is that the ER Scud is much cheaper. So North Korea can presumably build more ER Scuds to overwhelm THAAD.feedback

Feb 14 2017

The hardest thing to get the North Koreans to trade away were always the capabilities they already had. They were often willing to not do things. But getting them to give something up that they've already done tends to be much harder. These things went from potential bargaining chips to real capabilities that they don't want to give up.feedback

Feb 14 2017 - North Korea

It's not a guarantee, but it's a really important step. It's the straw that stirs the drink. If we get any bright ideas about rolling into Pyongyang, they have this retaliatory capability. And that really enables them to use their theater capabilities much more aggressively because we're not going to want to escalate. So if they have an ICBM capability that they can rely upon, it could be very destabilizing.feedback

Jan 04 2017 - ICBM

There's a warren of tunnels under the nuclear site. And an ICBM can be launched from anywhere in the country because it's mobile. You might as well invade the country.feedback

Nov 08 2016

But given the scale of the cooperation we've seen on the missile side, would it shock me? No, it would not shock me.feedback

Nov 08 2016

We know that there's a pretty robust collaboration. We see the cooperation right up until this day.feedback

Sep 14 2016

The primary constraint on its program is gone.feedback

Sep 14 2016 - Sanctions

While we saw this work in Iran, over time countries can adjust to sanctions.feedback

Sep 09 2016

The important thing is that five tests in, they now have a lot of nuclear test experience. They aren't a backwards state any more.feedback

Sep 09 2016

Yield estimates are always kind of approximate. The point is that it is the biggest one to date unless they revise the yield downward.feedback

Aug 30 2016

This represents an enormous investment in North Korea's missile production infrastructure, something that is consistent with the propaganda offensive we have seen and the spike in missile testing.feedback

Jun 22 2016

That suggests the missile worked perfectly. Had it been fired at its normal angle, it would have flown to its full range.feedback

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