John Briggs - NatWest


Last quote by John Briggs

For the Fed and markets, it's going to be really hard to figure out. The market might move, but strategists are going to be very reluctant to talk about longer term implications because the number is 50,000 to 100,000, from where we expected it to
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Oct 05 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which John Briggs is associated, including Fed, December, and market. Most recently, John Briggs has been quoted saying: “There's no information value. It's normally limited but we could have a complete wholesale changeover in the Fed six months from now.” in the article Fed signals interest rates will keep going higher as it exits financial crisis policy.
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John Briggs quotes

May 17 2017 - Republican Party

You're reducing your odds on any timing and eventuality. [Tax reform] certainly is going to be later, if at all. Not that it won't happen, but this has the markets saying that there's more potential for this to be a political crisis than other events so far. It's hard to see a Senate-House conference on health care being called. In my mind, the market's making a judgment that this is not going to be a passing political, minor road bump. The market seems to be telling me that it's more than

Apr 11 2017

Once they get back, they only have a week to do the CR. In my view, it's low odds [of failing]. Big picture, I don't think we break the range. There's a lot of cross

Apr 07 2017

You always want to be on alert for the start of a trend, but the other data makes me comfortable that this is not taking the Fed off the

Mar 03 2017

Now you have to have a reason not to go in June and September. If it's really bad, it's easy for them to dismiss – that it's so far out of whack, it can't be

Feb 27 2017

I don't think you should have a lot of expectation that we'll get a lot…He [Trump] even said the March budget outlook is not going to have anything about

Feb 27 2017

I think that would pressure yields. If there's any sense that there's big issuance needs coming in the future, you probably could steepen out the curve. I just don't know if you're going to get enough information to make a determination either

Feb 14 2017 - Federal Reserve

She's less cautious, that's for sure. Normally, Yellen talks about downside risks. She just talked about the upside

Feb 07 2017 - Federal Reserve

Yellen is next week. So what's going to entice you to put capital to work right now, and we're in fiscal limbo and any large decisions you make can get turned

Jan 30 2017 - Mexico

We're 10 days in, and we've seen nothing except the border tax, which is going to be higher prices for consumers. If we don't have anything by the end of the week, I'll be personally disappointed. I feel like if you get another seven days under your belt and you still don't have anything out of it but immigration, trade and taxing Mexico, you just have to wonder what the priorities

Jan 30 2017 - Immigration

The more time and energy and political capital spent on immigration and trade, while not getting anywhere on tax reform, the more the market worries. It's a pretty minor move. This is a pretty big week for data, the Fed and all that. There's a lot of uncertainty out there. I think risk is light, because they want to see what comes out of the wash with politics and the

Jan 27 2017 - Mexico

We will have some data. The market will pay attention to it but will keep an eye on the retreat. I think some of the stuff about controls against currency manipulators … then this Mexico stuff. I would argue it's not anything we haven't heard before but we keep going back and forth on the latest

Jan 05 2017

I think if anything people were caught short off the Trump trade, and there's worry tomorrow's jobs number might not be as firm as

Nov 30 2016

In order, it's oil, then better

Nov 09 2016

Financial markets are mostly reacting to the economic plans, but there is still an added boost, that if you increase tariffs, mechanically you will have higher imported good prices, which is

Nov 09 2016

Increased fiscal stimulus which could spur growth and inflation, and funded by tax cuts. That means a huge amount of money and supply. That's what's happening in rates, in a

Oct 31 2016

The reopening of the email investigation into Hillary Clinton certainly throws a wrench into the Presidential election now just eight days

Sep 21 2016

They would like to go in December. Rosengren's dissent is interesting. ... He's worried about financial stability aspects of keeping rates low, to the point where he's willing to

Sep 21 2016

They're trying to look past the weakness from earlier this month when they said economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of the year. I think they're hoping the data will give them cover to go in

Sep 20 2016

The information value is low in this. They've just been proven incorrect so many

Sep 14 2016

We're cautious until we get that behind

Sep 14 2016

We'll see what the data comes out like tomorrow, to see if anybody tries again to reignite this rate hike talk, but (Fed Governor Lael) Brainard put that to

Sep 06 2016

We were always in the position of thinking the Fed doesn't go until December. This just hammers it home. The last two times (that) ISM fell below 52 percent, it was preceding a

Sep 01 2016

We were talking about it here, whether it's 200,000, 225,000 or 250,

Sep 01 2016

The market was pretty nervous about

Aug 26 2016 - Federal Reserve

If the market continues to see a September hike, the 2-year yield could near 1

Aug 25 2016 - Federal Reserve

She could say we want to raise rates twice this year and the markets will get hit. The end game is the markets are going to take them out of September, if they signal it too

Aug 25 2016 - Federal Reserve

The media has been trying to spin how all these Fed speakers are trying to talk up the chances of a rate hike, so we've gotten up to a 55 percent chance of a rate hike by

Aug 05 2016

It's better. We're getting a little knee jerk reaction. We'll see if that

Jun 17 2016 - Federal Reserve

It's hard to see her deviating from the press conference she just had. I don't know how [Yellen] go[es] from being as uncertain as [she was] Wednesday to gaining certainty next

May 18 2016

Don't go too crazy on the June rate hike. There's still a lot of hurdles and even if those hurdles are met, there's still a Brexit

May 17 2016

We see core (CPI) ticking down to 2.1, which is in line with the consensus. The Fed's not going to be in any rush if inflation is slowing down. There's nothing in that number that's going to get the Fed to

May 06 2016

It really puts off the Fed. We've had a number that misses then the trend comes back. I'm not ready to say Q1 weakness has totally filtered through to Q2, but it's a

Apr 26 2016

If you've been long and you're heading into the Fed, and you don't think they're going to do anything, would you rather have the opportunity of losing a five-basis-point rally or being shocked and losing 10 to 15 basis points? I still think it's too early for them to set up a June hike. There's no upside for them to do

Jan 14 2016

It's probably a contributing factor. If you wanted to, you could argue the front end is moving on Bullard, but

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