Michael Gapen - Barclays


Last quote by Michael Gapen

The consensus, which we're pretty much in line with, is roughly 100,000 lower than the recent trend. But it'll be a one-month story. You'll get it back next month.feedback
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Oct 04 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Michael Gapen is associated, including Yellen, April, and outlook. Most recently, Michael Gapen has been quoted saying: “We brought fourth quarter up to 3 percent.” in the article Data should show a strong economy, despite a temporary hit from hurricanes.
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Michael Gapen quotes

May 04 2017

We think that could be a factor in depressing, on a seasonally adjusted basis, some of the service-sector hiring. We also think construction, more broadly, had a weather effect.feedback

May 02 2017

The bar to disrupting the Fed's plans is higher now than it was in previous years.feedback

Apr 29 2017 - Easter

These factors combined with the timing of the Easter holiday, which was in April this year compared with March last year probably weighed on consumption growth. All of these effects will likely reverse in the second quarter and provide a modest boost to growth.feedback

Apr 17 2017

The irony is the sentiment will be super strong in Q1 and activity data will be weak, and in Q2, the activity data will rebound and sentiment will weaken. We'll end up with something on the fiscal front. We think it will be more about tax cuts than tax reform.feedback

Apr 17 2017

We've never been on the magical mystery tour of tax reform giving us a 3 percent economy on day one. We're still likely to be a 2 percent economy over the course of the year. On balance, our view hasn't changed.feedback

Mar 31 2017

Our hypotheses was that automakers for a time preferred to keep production elevated a the expense of margins. Consensus is around 17.4 million. I would say if it's in the low 17s, it's still a good number.feedback

Mar 31 2017

The employment report will be important, but I'd say the key for us right now is auto sales. The other data already looks pretty strong. The ISMs look pretty good. It's the combination of the trade data and the auto data, and what it says about the health of the consumer which will be important for us. The consumer spending in Q1 looks awfully soft. You can make an argument that some of the firming in headline inflation is just mechanically eating into real spending. I think there's also delayed tax rebates that may be a factor. Autos is another part of the story.feedback

Mar 07 2017

A little messaging got the markets where the Fed wanted it, without adverse consequences.feedback

Jan 05 2017 - Mexico

In our outlook for this year, we did assume that the Trump administration applies tariffs to both Mexico and China. Some of our improvement in inflation, firming in inflation in our forecast for 2017 is a result of imposition of trade restricting policies. Even aside from that, there's good reason to expect inflation would continue to firm. It would come from different sources.feedback

Nov 16 2016

Despite the moderation this month, we expect PPI gradually to pick up and to feed through to a firming in consumer prices.feedback

Nov 03 2016

U.S. jobless claims remain supportive of labor market improvement.feedback

Oct 13 2016

He's at the conversion to saying, I now think waiting is a problem.feedback

Oct 13 2016

He's sounding the alarm that we're slipping behind.feedback

Sep 21 2016

The committee is more split than it has been at any time in our memory. This split in views will make FOMC communication and action increasingly difficult this year. In particular, we believe that this level of dissent will make it difficult for the committee to keep the possibility of a December rate hike live in the minds of market participants and, indeed, households and businesses.feedback

Sep 01 2016

Despite some seeming trouble in the manufacturing sector, the overall outlook for employment is positive.feedback

Aug 23 2016 - Federal Reserve

Yellen could use her Jackson Hole speech to deliver a concrete message that a rate hike will happen in the coming months if U.S. job growth stays strong.feedback

Jun 21 2016

You don't make too much about any one report but the trend is awfully weak.feedback

May 06 2016

We now only expect one rate hike in 2016, in September, as we believe it will take longer for policymakers to accumulate sufficient evidence that economic and labor market activity is rebounding after a soft start to the year.feedback

Apr 25 2016

We see the April statement as leading to a compromise outcome.feedback

Mar 30 2016 - Federal Reserve

We see the (Yellen) comments as an effort to exert control over the message and, in doing so, tilt expectations for policy rate hikes in a decidedly dovish direction.feedback

Mar 03 2016

The era of low or even negative interest rates across the developed world, particularly in Japan and the euro zone, could last for several years to come.feedback

Aug 23 2012

A move to an open-ended policy stance would be a important and powerful shift in the implementation of Fed policy; it would, in effect, say that the Fed is in motion until the data tell it to stop.feedback

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