Stephen Stanley - Amherst


Last quote by Stephen Stanley

We have to at least entertain the notion that an economy that was already in pretty solid shape cyclically is picking up momentum heading into the
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Oct 04 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Stephen Stanley is associated, including Fed and November. Most recently, Stephen Stanley has been quoted saying: “In my numbers, I took half a percent off of consumer spending in Q3 and added it back in to Q4. I think that's broadly how I'm thinking about the hurricane effects. There will be ongoing impacts.” in the article Massive Amazon is skewing the whole country's retail sales data and likely behind last month's drop.
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Stephen Stanley quotes

Jan 14 2017 - Federal Reserve

It seems like it will have a kind of dovish tint to it. Yellen is speaking a couple of times and Brainard. It felt kind of hawkish this week. I don't know if that's who is speaking or the general feel of the committee now. We'll know that next

Jan 05 2017

Wages, after having been down outright in November rebound at 0.3. That would be a big swing in the year-over-year number. My guess is it will flip to 2.75 percent year over year. ... You are at last seeing a gentle uptrend in wage growth at this

Jan 05 2017

If the Trump administration is able to successfully shepherd through a lot of things they are advocating that would be positive for growth. You could see a boost to growth without it being terribly inflationary ... I'm more hawkish on inflation than most. It's not because of the fiscal side, it's because I think the Fed has already fallen behind the

Jan 05 2017

I think we could see headline inflation by the end of this year running the high 2s and the core could be well over 2 percent as

Dec 27 2016

The election of Donald Trump has raised household expectations for the economy to a very high

Dec 23 2016

Housing demand clearly continues to be

Dec 21 2016

Some prospective buyers are going to be straining to get to an affordable monthly payment with mortgage rates higher and may take a harder line on prices (or settle for less home) to make the numbers

Dec 01 2016 - UBS

The average [job growth] so far this year has been 180,000. We did 160,000 in October. 200,000 in November just gets us back to

Dec 01 2016 - UBS

What's left to prove at this point? … I think we're down to debating the little nooks and crannies of whether there's 98 percent or 100 percent full

Dec 01 2016 - UBS

They're just pushing higher and higher and nobody has the conviction to stand before the freight train. At some point it will turn around, either before or after the Fed. I would argue that the level of yields we're getting into now are more consistent with where they should have

Oct 14 2016

You don't have that countervailing force. You have Trump pounding the table that things are terrible. …that might argue for having a negative impact on people's

Oct 14 2016

There have been examples in the past where sentiment seemed to dip a bit before the election. It's not very long-lasting, and it typically it reverses

Oct 14 2016

It's just gotten so low in the gutter as can be imagined. If other people are seeing this the way I am, it's depressing. Maybe I'm a little more bummed out than I might normally be just because of the tone of the

Sep 27 2016 - Federal Reserve

I don't know how much capital he would be willing to spend by trying to push her out immediately versus letting her serve out her term. He has professed a certain affinity for low rates. That would be the issue for the markets. … If not Yellen, now who is it going to

Sep 22 2016

The labor market remains rock

Sep 15 2016

That makes August's clunker of a report a little hard to

Sep 08 2016 - Unemployment

The underlying reality appears to be a rock solid labor market, with firms having increasing difficulty filling

Sep 06 2016

...The new orders and production components were both between 51 and 52, also the worst results since early 2010. The employment figure slipped by less than a point to 50.7. The text of the report notes that most comments from respondents point to a slowing in business, though none of the individual comments that were included in the report seem consistent with much more than a summer

Sep 06 2016

I am inclined to view it as more of a one-off than a rolling over of activity, but for those Fed officials who are having a difficult time deciding what to do at this month's meeting, all of the major August data out so far (auto sales, payrolls, both ISMs) have been noticeably weaker than expected. I'm not terribly worried about the fate of the economy, but I do feel even more comfortable today than I did a week ago calling for no Fed move in

Aug 24 2016

Sales are not rising as much as they are capable of, but prices are rising at a faster than sustainable

Aug 17 2016

As I have emphasized, with the employment box checked, the key impediment to further normalization of rates is inflation, which remains well below the Fed's 2 percent

Aug 16 2016

The worst is behind us. The outlook is significantly improved from the flat-to-down prevailing trend seen up until

May 12 2016

In any case, of the 18K increase in initial claims nationally on a not seasonally adjusted basis in the latest week, ... almost 15K comes from New York, close to doubling the number of new filers in the Empire State from one week to the

May 12 2016 - Unemployment

The story is that non-teacher school employees (bus drivers, cafeteria workers, etc.) are somehow permitted to file for unemployment when schools are closed for a week or two (your tax dollars at work). Since the timing of the breaks swings around from year to year, the seasonal adjustment process is unable to properly take this special factor into

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