Maurice Obstfeld on IMF


Last quote by Maurice Obstfeld on IMF

What will happen in the future, we don't know. These threats are in our downside thinking. They're not built into our baseline (forecast) because, hopefully, they don't happen, but there are risks. In the first two quarters of this year, growth has come in very high. Part of this is the general upsurge in world growth and the upsurge in trade in Asia. But there is also a component that has been fuelled by expanding domestic credit, and that's the part that worries
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Jul 25 2017
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All quotes by Maurice Obstfeld on IMF

One salient threat is a turn toward protectionism, leading to trade warfare. Mainly in advanced economies, several factors – lower growth since the 2010–11 recovery from the global financial crisis, even slower growth of median incomes, and structural labour-market disruptions – have generated political support for zero-sum policy approaches that could undermine international trading relationships, along with multi-lateral cooperation more

The global economy seems to be gaining momentum – we could be at a turning point. But even as things look up, the post–world war two system of international economic relations is under severe strain despite the aggregate benefits it has delivered – and precisely because growth and the resulting economic adjustments have too often entailed unequal rewards and costs within countries. Consistently good economic news since summer 2016 is starting to add up to a brightening global

If a fiscally driven demand increase collides with more rigid capacity constraints, a steeper path for interest rates will be necessary to contain inflation, the [US] dollar will appreciate sharply, real growth will be lower, budget pressure will increase and the US current account deficit will

Much of the better growth performance we expect this year and next stems from improvements in large emerging market and low income economies that in 2016 were exceptionally stressed. That being said, compared to our view in October, we now think that more of the lift will come from better prospects in the US, China, Europe and

At this early stage...the specifics of future fiscal legislation remain unclear, as do the degree of net increase in government spending and the resulting impacts on aggregate demand, potential output, the Federal deficit, and the

Markets have noted that the White House and Congress are in the hands of the same party for the first time in six years, and that change points to lower tax rates and possibly higher infrastructure and defence

The global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of

Taken as a whole, the world economy has moved sideways. Without determined policy action to support economic activity over the short and longer terms, sub-par growth at recent levels risks perpetuating itself. In short, growth has been too low for too long, and in many countries its benefits have reached too few - with political repercussions that are likely to depress global growth

As of June 22nd we were prepared to upgrade our 2016-2017 growth projections slightly. But Brexit has thrown a spanner in the

The real effects of Brexit will play out gradually over time, adding elements of economic and political uncertainty. This overlay of extra uncertainty, in turn, may open the door to an amplified response of financial markets to negative

In many countries the lack of wage growth and greater inequality have created widespread senses that economic growth has mainly been to the benefit of economic

Global growth continues, but at an increasingly disappointing pace that leaves the world economy more exposed to negative risks. Growth has been too slow for too

Several large emerging market economies face deep contractions due to internal political strife or geopolitical pressures and a number of low-income countries suffer El Nino-related drought or flooding. The costs could

We don't see a big change in the fundamentals in China compared to what we saw six months ago, but the markets are certainly very spooked by small events there that they find hard to interpret. It's not a stretch to suggest that [markets] may be reacting very strongly to rather small bits of evidence in an environment of volatility and risk

China has been transitioning to a model in which there is less of a dependence on exports, on investment, and more on consumption and services at the expense of traditional manufacturing

Currency management is an area where the Chinese authorities could be communicating more clearly with

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Quotes by Maurice Obstfeld on IMF

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